Sensei’s receipts · aggregate · public
Most AI tools give confident answers with no record of what they said last week. Sensei keeps the ledger. When a prediction lands, it’s marked correct. When it doesn’t, it’s marked incorrect. The number above updates as reality catches up.
A raw “percent correct” rewards bravado — you can juice it by only betting on sure things. Calibration is the harder, fairer test: when Sensei says it’s highly confident, does it land more often than when it hedges? The closer the points sit to the dotted line, the more Sensei’s confidence means exactly what it says.
5 of 28 predictions have resolved so far. That’s not yet enough to claim a calibrated track record — so we don’t. The bands fill in and the curve hardens as reality catches up. No fabricated S-curve in the meantime.
“With focused work on clarity and differentiation, you can hit 70+ within 60 days.”
“With focused work on clarity and differentiation, you can hit 70+ within 60 days.”
“With focused work on clarity and differentiation, you can hit 70+ within 60 days.”
“With focused work on clarity and differentiation, you can hit 70+ within 60 days.”
“With focused work on clarity and differentiation, you can hit 70+ within 60 days.”
“With focused work on clarity and differentiation, you can hit 70+ within 60 days.”
“With focused work on clarity and differentiation, you can hit 70+ within 60 days.”
“With focused work on clarity and differentiation, you can hit 70+ within 60 days.”
“With focused work on clarity and differentiation, you can hit 70+ within 60 days.”
“With focused work on clarity and differentiation, you can hit 70+ within 60 days.”
“With focused work on clarity and differentiation, you can hit 70+ within 60 days.”
“With focused work on clarity and differentiation, you can hit 70+ within 60 days.”
“With focused work on clarity and differentiation, you can hit 70+ within 60 days.”
“With focused work on clarity and differentiation, you can hit 70+ within 60 days.”
“Your Presence score will plateau without fresh content — the current momentum relies on a single viral post that's decaying.”
What happened
Presence score actually increased by 4 points due to unexpected organic mentions from a podcast appearance.
“A competitor in your space will raise funding this quarter given their recent executive hires and expansion signals.”
What happened
CompetitorX announced $12M Series A, confirming the expansion signals detected in their job postings.
“Your Edge score will strengthen as competitors continue to ignore the API-first segment you're targeting.”
“With focused work on clarity and differentiation, you can hit 70+ within 60 days.”
“Your Market Fit score will increase by 5+ points after implementing the onboarding changes suggested in last week's reading.”
What happened
Market Fit score rose from 62 to 71 (+9 points) following the simplified onboarding flow deployment.
“At least one direct competitor will pivot messaging toward your positioning within 4 weeks of your launch.”
“Competitor will announce a pricing change within 3 weeks based on their recent hiring patterns and market pressure.”
What happened
Competitor dropped prices by 20% on their starter tier, exactly as predicted based on their support hiring slowdown.
“The pricing page changes will improve conversion by at least 15% based on the free-first framing research.”
“Your Strategy score will drop if the roadmap stays unfocused — the current 12-feature plan dilutes the wedge.”
What happened
Strategy score dropped from 74 to 68 as predicted. Founder acknowledged roadmap sprawl in follow-up.
“Your launch score of 38 puts you at risk. Without action, competitors will outpace you in 30 days.”
“Your strategy score of 44 puts you at risk. Without action, competitors will outpace you in 30 days.”
“Your validate score of 42 puts you at risk. Without action, competitors will outpace you in 30 days.”
“Your strategy score of 44 puts you at risk. Without action, competitors will outpace you in 30 days.”
“Your validate score of 42 puts you at risk. Without action, competitors will outpace you in 30 days.”
“Your competitor will raise within the next two quarters.”
A claim about a specific move, a specific window. No hedging.
Reality runs. Sensei watches funding, score deltas, competitor moves.
Reconciliation is automatic. No one can shop for the verdict.
Correct, incorrect, or still pending.
Every outcome shows on the ledger above. No editing. No hiding.
Any advisor who won’t keep a ledger is selling confidence, not counsel.