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Sensei’s receipts · aggregate · public

Sensei has made 88 predictions with receipts. Reconciling against reality.

Most AI tools give confident answers with no record of what they said last week. Sensei keeps the ledger. When a prediction lands, it’s marked correct. When it doesn’t, it’s marked incorrect. The number above updates as reality catches up.

4 landed
1 missed
78 watching
Calibration

Confident answers are cheap. Honest confidence isn’t.

A raw “percent correct” rewards bravado — you can juice it by only betting on sure things. Calibration is the harder, fairer test: when Sensei says it’s highly confident, does it land more often than when it hedges? The closer the points sit to the dotted line, the more Sensei’s confidence means exactly what it says.

5 of 88 predictions have resolved so far. That’s not yet enough to claim a calibrated track record — so we don’t. The bands fill in and the curve hardens as reality catches up. No fabricated S-curve in the meantime.

Perfect calibration02550751000255075100Stated confidenceActually landedMedium confidence — landed 100% (2/2 resolved) · sample still small100%MediumHigh confidence — landed 67% (2/3 resolved) · sample still small67%High
Resolved band (enough data)Still accruingPerfect calibration
The ledger

Every prediction, public. No hiding.

  • With focused work on clarity and differentiation, you can hit 70+ within 60 days.

    Watchingmedium confidence60 daysmade 2 days ago
  • With focused work on clarity and differentiation, you can hit 70+ within 60 days.

    Watchingmedium confidence60 daysmade 2 days ago
  • With focused work on clarity and differentiation, you can hit 70+ within 60 days.

    Watchingmedium confidence60 daysmade 2 days ago
  • With focused work on clarity and differentiation, you can hit 70+ within 60 days.

    Watchingmedium confidence60 daysmade 2 days ago
  • With focused work on clarity and differentiation, you can hit 70+ within 60 days.

    Watchingmedium confidence60 daysmade 1 week ago
  • With focused work on clarity and differentiation, you can hit 70+ within 60 days.

    Watchingmedium confidence60 daysmade 1 week ago
  • With focused work on clarity and differentiation, you can hit 70+ within 60 days.

    Watchingmedium confidence60 daysmade 1 week ago
  • With focused work on clarity and differentiation, you can hit 70+ within 60 days.

    Watchingmedium confidence60 daysmade 1 week ago
  • Bloomest's content score will increase by +5 or more within 90 days, driven by feedback and insights gained from their direct engagement with postpartum doulas and lactation consultants leading to content refinement.

    Watchingmedium confidencewithin 90 daysmade 2 weeks ago
  • Bloomest's strategy score will increase by +5 or more within 90 days, reflecting progress in establishing and validating a B2B2C distribution channel through postpartum doulas and lactation consultants.

    Watchingmedium confidencewithin 90 daysmade 2 weeks ago
  • With focused work on clarity and differentiation, you can hit 70+ within 60 days.

    Watchingmedium confidence60 daysmade 2 weeks ago
  • With focused work on clarity and differentiation, you can hit 70+ within 60 days.

    Watchingmedium confidence60 daysmade 2 weeks ago
  • With focused work on clarity and differentiation, you can hit 70+ within 60 days.

    Watchingmedium confidence60 daysmade 2 weeks ago
  • With focused work on clarity and differentiation, you can hit 70+ within 60 days.

    Watchingmedium confidence60 daysmade 2 weeks ago
  • With focused work on clarity and differentiation, you can hit 70+ within 60 days.

    Watchingmedium confidence60 daysmade 2 weeks ago
  • With focused work on clarity and differentiation, you can hit 70+ within 60 days.

    Watchingmedium confidence60 daysmade 2 weeks ago
  • With focused work on clarity and differentiation, you can hit 70+ within 60 days.

    Watchingmedium confidence60 daysmade 2 weeks ago
  • With focused work on clarity and differentiation, you can hit 70+ within 60 days.

    Watchingmedium confidence60 daysmade 2 weeks ago
  • With focused work on clarity and differentiation, you can hit 70+ within 60 days.

    Watchingmedium confidence60 daysmade 2 weeks ago
  • With focused work on clarity and differentiation, you can hit 70+ within 60 days.

    Watchingmedium confidence60 daysmade 3 weeks ago
  • With focused work on clarity and differentiation, you can hit 70+ within 60 days.

    Watchingmedium confidence60 daysmade 3 weeks ago
  • With focused work on clarity and differentiation, you can hit 70+ within 60 days.

    Watchingmedium confidence60 daysmade 3 weeks ago
  • With focused work on clarity and differentiation, you can hit 70+ within 60 days.

    Watchingmedium confidence60 daysmade 3 weeks ago
  • With focused work on clarity and differentiation, you can hit 70+ within 60 days.

    Watchingmedium confidence60 daysmade 3 weeks ago
  • With focused work on clarity and differentiation, you can hit 70+ within 60 days.

    Watchingmedium confidence60 daysmade 3 weeks ago
  • Seeking Alpha will announce or heavily promote an enhancement to their 'Quant Ratings' or 'Factor Grades' to include more granular, AI-driven fundamental analysis, specifically highlighting insights into 'competitive moats' or long-term strategic advantages.

    Watchingmedium confidencewithin 90 daysmade 4 weeks ago
  • The product's 'compete' score will increase by +5 or more, reaching at least 65.

    Watchinghigh confidencewithin 30 daysmade 4 weeks ago
  • Slidr's 'compete' score will increase by +5 or more within 90 days.

    Watchinghigh confidencewithin 90 daysmade 4 weeks ago
  • Slidr's 'audit' score will increase by +5 or more within 90 days.

    Watchinghigh confidencewithin 90 daysmade 4 weeks ago
  • Within 90 days, Manifold Markets will announce or begin piloting a feature allowing for private or group-restricted prediction markets, in response to Called It.'s planned Pro tier offering which includes private predictions.

    Watchingmedium confidencewithin 90 daysmade 4 weeks ago
  • Called It.'s 'strategy' score will increase by +5 or more within 90 days, driven by the successful implementation of its Pro tier monetization path.

    Watchinghigh confidencewithin 90 daysmade 4 weeks ago
  • With focused work on clarity and differentiation, you can hit 70+ within 60 days.

    Watchingmedium confidence60 daysmade 1 month ago
  • With focused work on clarity and differentiation, you can hit 70+ within 60 days.

    Watchingmedium confidence60 daysmade 1 month ago
  • With focused work on clarity and differentiation, you can hit 70+ within 60 days.

    Watchingmedium confidence60 daysmade 1 month ago
  • With focused work on clarity and differentiation, you can hit 70+ within 60 days.

    Watchingmedium confidence60 daysmade 1 month ago
  • With focused work on clarity and differentiation, you can hit 70+ within 60 days.

    Watchingmedium confidence60 daysmade 1 month ago
  • With focused work on clarity and differentiation, you can hit 70+ within 60 days.

    Watchingmedium confidence60 daysmade 1 month ago
  • With focused work on clarity and differentiation, you can hit 70+ within 60 days.

    Watchingmedium confidence60 daysmade 1 month ago
  • With focused work on clarity and differentiation, you can hit 70+ within 60 days.

    Watchingmedium confidence60 daysmade 1 month ago
  • With focused work on clarity and differentiation, you can hit 70+ within 60 days.

    Watchingmedium confidence60 daysmade 1 month ago
  • Meerkat's 'compete' score will increase by +5 or more within 90 days, following community engagement and feedback generated from posting the free 'Roast' tool in r/LocalLLaMA.

    Watchingmedium confidencewithin 90 daysmade 1 month ago
  • Meerkat's 'validate' score will increase by +5 or more within 30 days, driven by the implementation of a clearer buyer statement under the H1 on getmeerkat.dev.

    Watchinghigh confidencewithin 30 daysmade 1 month ago
  • With focused work on clarity and differentiation, you can hit 70+ within 60 days.

    Watchingmedium confidence60 daysmade 1 month ago
  • With focused work on clarity and differentiation, you can hit 70+ within 60 days.

    Watchingmedium confidence60 daysmade 1 month ago
  • With focused work on clarity and differentiation, you can hit 70+ within 60 days.

    Watchingmedium confidence60 daysmade 1 month ago
  • With focused work on clarity and differentiation, you can hit 70+ within 60 days.

    Watchingmedium confidence60 daysmade 1 month ago
  • With focused work on clarity and differentiation, you can hit 70+ within 60 days.

    Watchingmedium confidence60 daysmade 1 month ago
  • With focused work on clarity and differentiation, you can hit 70+ within 60 days.

    Watchingmedium confidence60 daysmade 1 month ago
  • With focused work on clarity and differentiation, you can hit 70+ within 60 days.

    Watchingmedium confidence60 daysmade 1 month ago
  • With focused work on clarity and differentiation, you can hit 70+ within 60 days.

    Watchingmedium confidence60 daysmade 1 month ago

Showing the most recent 50 of 88 predictions.

The contract

Every reading ends with predictions. Receipts, not rhetoric.

Stated

“Your competitor will raise within the next two quarters.”

A claim about a specific move, a specific window. No hedging.

Watched

Reality runs. Sensei watches funding, score deltas, competitor moves.

Reconciliation is automatic. No one can shop for the verdict.

Sealed

Correct, incorrect, or still pending.

Every outcome shows on the ledger above. No editing. No hiding.

Any advisor who won’t keep a ledger is selling confidence, not counsel.